A New Middle East?

June 25, 2025

Guests: Aaron David Miller

Aaron David Miller is a scholar and former diplomat who has spent decades working on Middle East negotiations and policy at the State Department; he is now affiliated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he analyzes Israeli-Palestinian and U.S.-Iran diplomacy.

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About this episode

Days after Trump ordered U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities — something Bush, Obama, and Biden all declined to do — Klein turns to veteran diplomat Aaron David Miller to ask whether the Middle East is entering a new era. Miller is skeptical of 'game changers': Israel has enjoyed escalation dominance since October 7, and while the strikes damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, the fate of 800 pounds of highly enriched uranium and the IAEA's monitoring access remain uncertain. He portrays Trump as transactional and situational rather than strategic, warning that bombing without a diplomatic plan risks leaving Iran a nuclear-threshold state. They also discuss the 'ruse' of the Witkoff negotiation rounds, why the flawed-but-functional JCPOA was abandoned, and whether Trump's Gaza ceasefire push signals any real shift in the region.

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